The Relative Thinking Trap
Humans have an easier time understanding the world by thinking about things in relative terms. These comparisons help us better compartmentalize our thoughts and benchmark our performance. Relative...
View ArticleThe Confirmation Bias of the Anti-Forecasters
It’s become fashionable in recent years to shun all types of forecasting about the future. This narrative usually involves the cherry picking of bad forecasts to prove the point. For instance, we often...
View ArticleLet’s Talk About the Bubble in Catastrophizing
There’s a bubble in catastrophizing. This is the tendency to always assume the worst. Which is weird because the worst rarely plays out. In fact, even in worst case scenarios the financial markets...
View ArticleCurating a Social Media Feed to Make Better Decisions
One of the most common problems in economics and finance is the fallacy of composition. The fallacy of composition occurs when you fail to understand the entirety of an argument. As an example, a...
View ArticleCurating a Social Media Feed to Make Better Decisions
One of the most common problems in economics and finance is the fallacy of composition. The fallacy of composition occurs when you fail to understand the entirety of an argument. [ … ] The post...
View ArticleHow to Overcome Your Fear of Bonds
I specialize in building relatively conservative “all weather” style indexing portfolios. They are designed for people who have a reasonably long time horizon (at least 5-10 years), don’t want to [ … ]...
View ArticleThe Best Investment Strategy: DISCIPLINE
I was reading this article in the NY Times about a wide ranging diet study. They performed a meticulously controlled test to study what type of diet works best. Their [ … ] The post The Best Investment...
View ArticleThe Permaeverything Approach
I’m a permaeverything. Not a permabear. Not a permabull. A permaeverything. What the hell does that mean? It means I try to always maintain a relatively balanced exposure across my [ … ] The post The...
View ArticleThe Psychology of the Stock Market, in One Image
What a wild year it’s been. You could say that the pandemic was like an entire market cycle all rolled into one year. A boom, a bust and a boom. [ … ] The post The Psychology of the Stock Market, in...
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